On Sunday, we held our monthly All-Members Meeting. One of the highlights was our perspective on significant events in national politics from the past month. We call it Dispatches from the Road to Victory. While IEB’s focus is most often local and task-specific, it pays to take a step back and view the larger picture from time to time. That’s what these “dispatches” are all about. For those of you who missed the meeting, here are the key take-aways from the presentation:
1. New York election interference trial: This is serious! Trump’s current trial in NYC is first and foremost an “election interference” trial, not simply a “hush money” trial. Trump falsified business records in an attempt to cover up illegal expenditures that were intended to suppress information that would damage his chances of winning the 2016 election. These are serious charges. Remember: Michael Cohen went to jail for doing exactly what Trump is now accused of doing. If Cohen’s conviction was justified — which it was — then Trump should be found as guilty as well. Indeed, Trump was famously listed in Cohen’s indictment as “Individual 1” — a co-conspirator. Equally compelling: AMI’s CEO, David Pecker, who was on the stand all last week, agreed to an immunity deal — precisely because he knew that what he and Trump did was illegal and could land him in jail. The trial is not a slam dunk, but we believe a conviction is more likely than not. In any case, it is likely to be the only Trump case that goes to trial before the election. And Trump does not at all seem to be enjoying himself.
2. Trump as Al Capone: Where the comparison actually works. At recent rallies, Trump has taken to comparing himself to Al Capone. We think the comparison is appropriate, although not in the absurd way Trump intends. Al Capone was eventually convicted of tax evasion — not murder, assault, extortion or boot-legging. And you know what? No one complained that they were unable to convict him of those “violent” crimes instead of a “financial” one. They understood how heinous Capone was — and that any conviction was better than none. In the same way, we needn’t fret about whether Trump’s NY trial represents the most serious charges against the former President (spoiler alert: it doesn’t). Regardless, a justifiable conviction is a win — and will mean that Trump finally faces accountability.
3. Arizona indictments: Fake elector scheme redux. Guess what? More-or-less the same motley crew that was indicted for election interference (via the fake elector scheme) in Georgia have now been indicted for similar crimes in Arizona. This includes Mark Meadows, Rudy Giuliani and…yet again as an “unindicted co-conspirator”…Donald Trump. Trump has also recently been cited as an “unindicted co-conspirator” in a similar ongoing probe in Michigan. It’s a trifecta!
4. Supreme Court hearing on Presidential immunity: The Court seeks to help Trump. There is no positive way to spin this. Based on the questioning by the Justices at the hearing on Thursday, it seemed clear that a majority will favor at least partial immunity to Trump…likely with a referral back to the lower court to sort things out. This will inevitably lead to delays that will prohibit any chance of a trial occurring before the November election. As Robert Reich explained, this is a deliberate “ruse” on the part of the conservative justice to help Trump evade responsibility. Shameful. But when you are dealing with Justices such as Clarence Thomas (who should have recused himself), what else can you expect? [And don’t forget that, if not for Mitch McConnell’s dirty tactics (re replacing Scalia and Ginsberg), two of the Justices Trump appointed during his Presidency would have been appointed by Democrats instead. Sadly, we will likely have to live with the repercussions of this for a generation. This is just the latest example.]
5. Gaza protests on campus: No easy answers. Regarding Gaza, disentangling justified protest from unacceptable anti-semitism can be difficult. Amongst the crowd at a protest, you will likely find examples of both. Remember: Being opposed to Netanyahu and his policies is not (and should not) be seen as the same as opposing Israel’s very existence. I again turn to Robert Reich for insight. He talked with groups of college students in search of areas of agreement between opposing sides. One place where he found such agreement was an acceptance of the difference between an explanation and a justification. “In the end, even those who understood why Hamas did what it did on October 7 agreed that the killings and kidnappings of innocent civilians were not morally justifiable.” Similarly, even those that “wanted to defend Israel” and felt that “Hamas had to be rooted out,” agreed that “killing of innocent civilians, including large numbers of children” was morally unjustified. In other words, there are no easy solutions here. But a cease-fire combined with a release of the hostages would be a good place to start.
6. Abortion rights: Roevember is coming! We’ve previously covered Arizona’s abominable Civil War era anti-abortion law, recently upheld by its stated Supreme Court. The good news here is that Arizona is poised to repeal the law — following passage by the House last week and with a positive Senate vote expected this week. Regardless, reproductive rights is virtually certain to remain a salient issue in the upcoming election — with several states putting initiatives to protect abortion on the ballot. Democrats are seizing this as an opportunity to energize voters and get them to the polls this November.
7. The normalization of Trump: Expose how abnormal it really is. As Thomas Edsall writes in The New York Times: “Even as Trump has steadily escalated his defiance of behavioral norms, a substantial share of the American electorate remains willing to cast a ballot for him. Approximately half of the electorate views Trump as a legitimate 2024 presidential contender, repeatedly demonstrating in surveys that they plan to vote for him in a matchup with President Biden. Followers granting political legitimacy to Trump go well beyond his hard-core MAGA supporters. These voters have normalized perhaps the least normal president in American history.” As little as a decade ago, a mere 10% of what Trump has said and done — together with the resulting impeachments and indictments — would have been more than enough to disqualify him from any chance of getting the nomination for President — never mind a chance of winning. There would be no way to view Trump in a favorable light. But times have changed. Even as he sits on trial in New York, even after being held liable in civil courts for fraud and for sexual assault, polls still show he has substantial support.
We can’t afford to simply wring our hands and bemoan the “through the looking-glass” nature of Trump’s support. We must fight against this “normalizing.” Beyond the MAGA supporters, those who are considering voting for Trump are likely not paying attention. They are thinking: If he is the Republican nominee, then it must be okay to vote for him. They view the charges against him (if they aware of them at all) as the result of politics — of the sort that both sides are guilty of doing. In any case, they don’t view them as sufficiently serious to be determinative. We have to break through this mindset. We must not allow Trump to be viewed as a “normal” candidate — as a viable alternative to Biden (or anyone). He is not a victim but a perpetrator. There is no legitimate “both-sides-ism” to be had here. Our number one goal going forward must be to expose Trump for the criminal and liar and autocrat-wannabe that he is — and to make clear that (by his own admission) he intends to destroy our democracy if and when he gets elected.
