2024 Election Roadmap: Where we are now and what’s ahead

by Ted Landau & Nancy Latham

Election Day is just 8 months away. The road ahead promises to be an historic roller coaster ride of ups and downs: Trumps trials, Biden’s age, GOP efforts at voter suppression, the looming threat of autocracy, the battle over immigration reform, the political fallout of the war in Gaza and support for Ukraine — just to name a few.

Before we go careening through all the twists and turns, let’s take a brief moment to assess where things now stand — looking especially through the lens of how it determines IEB’s plans and goals for the upcoming election cycle. We’ll start with a wide-angle view of the national landscape and gradually zoom in on our local area.

The big picture: The Presidency. 

It’s now almost certain to be a rematch of Biden v. Trump.

Here’s the good news:

In separate trials, Donald Trump has been found liable for rape and for massive business fraud. He has been indicted for election interference and for trying to overthrow the results of the 2020 election. He continues to spread “the big lie.” Not to mention that he has been impeached…not once…but twice.

By any yardstick, any one of these things (and there’s more I didn’t mention) should be determinative. Trump shouldn’t have a chance to be the GOP nominee, nevermind the eventual winner in the fall.

Here’s the bad news:

As recently as a decade ago, with all that baggage, Trump would be relegated to the dustbins of history by now. Unfortunately, thanks to our uber-divisive political climate, Trump can and may win. This is the upside-down through-the-looking-glass Twilight Zone completely bonkers world we live in now. Get used to it.

A significant chunk of the country (not just MAGA nuts) doesn’t view Trump as the existential threat to democracy that he clearly is. At best, Biden currently holds a slight lead in the latest polls. In some polls, Trump is ahead, especially in critical swing states. And Trump still scores higher than Biden on Age and Mental Fitness. Clearly, we have our work cut out for us.

But keep calm! Polls at this stage are very unreliable. I never begin to take them seriously until after the conventions. There’s very good reason to believe that, as election day draws near, the weight of Trump’s negatives will matter more and more.

Nevada and Arizona: POTUS and Senate races 

Two states are on California’s eastern border: Arizona and Nevada. Biden carried them both in 2020 — and they played an important role in his victory. They will likely again be key for Biden if he is to win again in 2024. That’s why, to the extent IEB can help register Democrats and get them to the polls in those states, the pay-off can be huge. 

These two states also figure in key races for control of the Senate: 

In Arizona, there is the race for Krysten Sinema’s seat. It’s still not sure whether or not she will run for re-election. Regardless, the odious liar and Trump accolyte, Kari Lake, is running on the Republican side. We cannot let her win. The good news is that the latest polls show that the presumed Democratic nominee, Ruben Gallego, has a double-digit lead over Lake in a head-to-head showdown. Sinema, meanwhile, brings up the rear in a potential three-way contest.

Just as important is the Senate race in Nevada. Jacky Rosen, the Democrat, is the incumbent. Recent polls indicate that she has the lead over whoever emerges as the Republican candidate. But it’s very close…with her having just a 2% edge over her most likely opponent: Sam Brown. It’s especially tricky because Trump is leading Biden in Nevada. His coattails could boost Brown’s chances.

Because Nevada is our closest neighboring state, and because of our continuing partnership with NV Indivisible groups, Indivisible East Bay has decided to focus our attention on this race. Rosen can and should win this. But there’s work to be done.

California: Senate race 

In California, the battle for Diane Feinstein’s Senate seat has been unexpectedly dramatic — because three high-profile House Democrats are competing: 

• Adam Schiff: of Trump Impeachment and January 6th Committee fame.
• Katie Porter: a firebrand with impressive showings at hearings.
• Barbara Lee: a stalwart Progressive and local favorite.

Here in California, the top two vote getters in the primary move on to November, even if they are both of the same party. Currently, Schiff and Porter are vying for those two spots — with Schiff in a clear lead. However, Steve Garvey, the Republican challenger, has a decent chance of finishing second. While Garvey would certainly lose in November, a second place finish for him could prevent your personal favorite from even being on the ballot in November. This is especially critical for progressives — as Schiff is generally considered the least progressive of the three Democrats . Basically, if you want to make sure either Porter or Lee are on the ballot in November, you have work to do in the next few days. 

California: House races 

New York and California are considered to be two of the bluest states in the country. Yet, even after the flip of George Santos’s seat, New York still has 10 (out of 26) Republicans in Congress! And California has 11 (out of 52). That’s why control of the House in 2024 will be decided by how well Democrats do in these two states. If we can flip just a few of the currently red seats to blue…that should determine the outcome nationally. 

As part of that effort, we here at IEB have decided to focus on the closest battleground district: California’s 13th/Modesto (the next district over, only about an hour away from Oakland). The incumbent, John Duarte, is a Republican. Yet the district itself leans Democratic. And, in 2022, Duarte defeated his Democratic opponent, Adam Gray, by only 564 votes (out of 133,556 cast) — less than 1⁄2 a percentage point! The 2024 election is a rematch. Analysts say the race is currently too close to call and is “one of the truest toss-up districts in the whole country.” The March 5 primary will give us a preview of what we might expect in November. 

Are you in? 

Let’s go for the win with Biden/Harris, Rosen in the Nevada Senate race and Gray in California’s 13th. Are you pumped to make a difference in 2024? Here’s how to make it happen:

• We’re working with Field Team 6 by writing postcards to potential voters in CD13 to get them to register to vote! Sign up for postcard events here. 
• The Canvass Crew heads to CD13 1-2 times a month. Sign up here to learn more and let us know you’re interested. You’ll hear back from Laurel or Joan (who will give you the info you need and get you sorted into a carpool).
• The Call Crew phonebanks together – now to CD13 and soon to Nevada. We’re building our numbers, skills, and enthusiasm. Join us, get access to training resources, and grow your confidence to talk to voters! Fill out the interest form here and you’ll hear back from Nancy (a Call Crew lead)!
• The Nevada Team is planning how we’ll deliver the state for Biden-Harris and for Jacky Rosen (the incumbent Senator). Sign up here to get in on the ground floor!
• The Biden-Harris campaign is making a big bet on relational organizing – a method shown to be highly effective at boosting voter turnout. It worked for them in 2020 – and IEB has formed a Relational Team! Sign up here to learn how to help turn out voters in battleground states.