In the vernacular of evolutionary biology, a common phrase is: Adapt or die. This serves as a useful analogy for the current state of progressive grassroots actions.
There are many lessons to be learned from the 2024 election. But one that appears to have almost universal agreement is that the traditional tactics that have been the mainstay of our actions for many election cycles — postcards, phone-banks, canvassing — were not up to the task of pushing us over the finish line. If they were, Kamala Harris would be president now. There is general agreement that the Democrats’ “ground game” was far superior to that of the Republicans. And yet it did not lead to victory. If the Republican candidate wasn’t Trump, one might argue that our ground game wasn’t sufficient to overcome the positive attributes of our opponent. But with Trump, we were dealing with someone who is a twice-impeached insurrectionist and convicted felon. Surely, this was someone who we could have — and should have — defeated on the merits. But it was not to be.
It might be tempting to believe that 2024 was a one-off — and that traditional ground game tactics will prevail in future elections. Most political analysts, including those in the Democratic Party, believe otherwise. As The New York Times put it; “If there is one point of consensus in the deeply fractured Democratic Party, it’s that the old ways of doing business just aren’t cutting it.”
Grassroots organizations are coming to the same conclusion. For example, Vote Forward (an organization that has been a major proponent of letter writing campaigns) recently released the results of their 2024 effort to mail 10 million handwritten notes to voters. Similar efforts had worked well in prior campaigns. But not in 2024 — where the impact was described as “negligible.”
To put in bluntly, we are witnessing a generational shift in how elections are fought and won. And, returning to our analogy, Democrats and progressives must adapt or die.
So, what does this adaptive change look like? What specifically do we need to do? There is less consensus here. However, I believe at least three general themes have emerged. Briefly, these are:
• The traditional approach — reloaded. For openers, Swing Left, asserts that we need not abandon the “old ways” entirely. Rather, we have to rethink how we use them.
“Voter contact is broken. Not because it doesn’t work, but because Democrats are doing it wrong.
Largely speaking, campaigns start talking to voters too late and target too narrowly. They underinvest in persuasion conversations. And they ignore 1 in 4 potential voters, who are disproportionately Black, Latino, and/or low-income, because they’re unlisted or mislisted in the data Democrats rely on.”
To address this, Swing Left is launching a new program called Ground Truth.
“Ground Truth aims to enlist volunteers to knock on every single door in tightly contested congressional districts, not just on targeted ones.
Starting this fall—a full year earlier than traditional electoral organizing programs—we will pilot the Ground Truth program in targeted swing districts that’ll be key to flipping the House.
We’re going to knock every door, talk to every voter, listen deeply, and aggregate the ground insights we gather—creating the largest focus group ever.”
We saw some moves in this direction in 2024 but to nowhere near the extent that Swing Left intends to push for it in 2026 and beyond.
• Social media — upended. At first glance, you may not consider social media to be a form of voter contact — an alternative to knocking on doors and making phone calls. But it is. And it matters now more than ever — as Americans increasingly get their news from online shows and streamers. According to a 2024 Pew Research study: “About half of TikTok users (52%) say they regularly get news on the site, up from 43% in 2023 and just 22% in 2020.” This level of increase is similarly reflected in other major online destinations — notably YouTube and Instagram.
Unfortunately, as you have almost certainly noticed, the left has been on the losing end of social media battles for some time now. For example, a Media Matters analysis found that nine out of the 10 top online shows, whether political or not, were judged as right-leaning. Worse, right-leaning online shows accounted for roughly 82% of the total following of the 320 shows they assessed.
This right wing dominance in social media (TikTok; Instagram; podcasts; etc.) likely played a pivotal role in the 2024 election. Analyses indicate that the two places where the GOP emerged as having had the biggest advantage over Democrats in 2024 were television advertising (in swing states) and social media.
As grassroots activists, we can’t do much about television advertising. And most of us aren’t going to become podcasters. But we can still push for a much bigger and more influential presence on social media. As I covered in a brief talk at last month’s All Members Meeting, there are things you can do right now — from flooding the comments section of GOP politicians’ social media accounts to frequently posting political messages on your own accounts to creating YouTube and TikTok videos.
As Vote Save America put it:
“When we say ‘flood the zone’ and ‘get loud’ what we explicitly mean is we need to create, share, and amplify an absolute obscene amount of {social media} content. That’s the only way to level the media-attention ecosystem.”
Priorities USA is similarly funding programs focused on advertising via social media, asserting that:
“A focus on digital ads was overdue…We’re going to put all of our eggs in the basket of how are people consuming content on the internet.”
Doing well in the social media sphere may not guarantee success in future elections. But competing poorly will almost surely guarantee failure!
• Strategic non-cooperation — reborn. The ultimate goal of all our actions is to win elections. That’s how we regain power. But our efforts here need to expand beyond direct voter contact. Especially in the current environment, we also have to work to slow down or block our opponent’s actions — if only to ensure that there will remain a free and fair election when the next one comes along. This is the approach currently championed by Indivisible National. Yes, we have done this in the past but — as Indivisible asserted in a recent email to members — it’s time for a change:
“In the past, we’ve been able to lean directly on the power of the ballot box and the pressure we, as constituents, can bring to bear on our elected representatives. Whether it was saving the Affordable Care Act or kicking Trump out of office in 2020, we’ve proven that organizing on a local level to drive progress works — and that is still true. But the pressing threat of authoritarianism means that we have to include new strategies to protect the future of our democracy and our people.”
We’re in a period of what the experts call “authoritarian breakthrough” — a short period where a would-be authoritarian (i.e. Trump) sprints to rapidly concentrate and consolidate their power while eroding the norms and institutions that could serve as checks on that power.”
“Think of it like a house — the roof is the regime, the pillars holding up that roof are the organizations, and the foundation is the people. To prevent a slide into authoritarianism, we have to take on the pillars that hold up the roof.”
“The key to stopping authoritarian breakthrough isn’t attacking the would-be ruler, but chipping away at the vital institutions upholding their power — causing the entire house of cards to collapse.”
This is a direct descendant of the non-violent resistance that, in this country, dates back to the Civil Rights Movement of the 1950’s and 60’s. IEB has delved into this topic in recent posts: What’s Next after NO KINGS? and We Shall Not be Moved!. From rallies to sit-ins to strikes, success will require the combined action of millions. And for starters, it will take at least a million of people like us —just to get the ball rolling. To accomplish that, Indivisible has launched One Million Rising. We encourage you to sign up!
Summing up. We understand. It’s hard not to feel discouraged these days — with Trump as President attempting to break every norm and law that stands in the way of his march to authoritarian power — aided by a GOP-controlled Congress that has abdicated its oversight role and a Supreme Court majority that seeks to remove as many restraints on Trump as it can locate. But there remains good reason for hope — arising from the ashes of 2024. Trump is currently about as unpopular as he has ever been and is continuing to lose ground — even among his staunchest supporters. His policies are even less popular. And with the emergence of the new directions and tactics described here — we see a path forward for a different and better future. As always, the time to start working on all of this is…now!
“Come senators, congressmen
Please heed the call
Don’t stand in the doorway
Don’t block up the hall
For he that gets hurt
Will be he who has stalled
The battle outside ragin’
Will soon shake your windows
And rattle your walls
For the times they are a-changin'”
— Bob Dylan
