Nevada. It’s geographically the East Bay’s closest neighboring state. It’s also a hyper-critical swing state. While, as we’ve previously proclaimed,“control of the House will be determined by how California votes this fall,” Nevada is almost certain to play an out-size role both in in the race for the White House and for the majority in both houses of Congress. We need to make sure that Nevada swings Blue in 2024.
Nevada is definitely a “swinger”
As the above graph (courtesy of the Biden-Harris campaign) illustrates, Nevada has played a major role in every Presidential election in modern history — typically with a narrow gap between the two parties — and no one side certain to emerge victorious. While the GOP/Trump edged out a win in the last two elections, no one assumes this is strong predictor of what will happen in 2024. This is the textbook example of a swing state.
Complicating matters further, even within a single election cycle, voters have been known to “split the ticket.” For example, in 2022, a Democrat (Catherine Cortez Masto) won a Senate seat while a Republican (Joe Lombardo) won the governorship.
This tendency to split continues in 2024. According to recent polls, the Democratic candidate for the Senate, Jacky Rosen, is favored to win. Yet for the Presidency, Trump maintains a slight lead over Biden. What will happen in November remains anyone’s guess — especially so since non-partisan voters have surpassed both Republicans and Democrats in Nevada voter registration:
On a related note: An initiative to enshrine reproductive rights in Nevada’s Constitution will be on the ballot this fall. If successful, it will not only be a victory for reproductive freedom — the initiative should be a strong motivator to get Democrats to the polls — helping Blue candidates up and down the ticket.
What you can do
What happens in Nevada won’t stay in Nevada. It will have national implications. And Nevada is definitely up for grabs this fall. Given its relative proximity to us, we are especially well-positioned to help determine the outcome. That’s why we here at Indivisible East Bay have been focusing so much of our attention on the Silver State. We are doing phone banks and will eventually be traveling across the border to canvass. We’ve also been working with the Democratic Party to develop campaign material.
If you want to join us, start by signing up for IEB’s Nevada Team. We’d also encourage you to sign up for “All Aboard, The Training Series,” a Nevada Democrats webinar on April 25 that recaps their three prior webinars on messaging and how to have effective conversations on the phones, at the doors, and with our friends and family about the upcoming election.
We have our work cut out for us. But, if we get out the Democratic vote and persuade a significant number of undecided independents to vote Blue, we will win Nevada this fall. And that will be a bigger win than a casino jackpot in Las Vegas.
